Prophet of our times

Prophet inequalities for I.I.D. random variables with random arrival times

Suppose X1, X2, . . . are i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with finite expectation, and for each k, Xk is observed at the k-th arrival time Sk of a Poisson process with unit rate which is independent of the sequence {Xk}. For t > 0, comparisons are made between the expected maximum M(t) := E[maxk≥1 Xk I(Sk ≤ t)] and the optimal stopping value V (t) := supτ∈T E[Xτ I(Sτ ≤ t)], where T is the s...

Stalin and Our Times

The paper considers how a number of features of Stalin’s rule that appear most pointless or counter–productive from a present day standpoint, summed up as “futile repression”, can be understood as the rational choices of a dictator optimising his regime. The same reasoning may be applied to those aspects of Stalin’s legacy that are most commonly seen as positive, such as the industrial and mili...

Self-Government in Our Times¤

The eighteenth century conception of democracy as a system of self-government was based on an assumption that rendered it unrealistic and incoherent, namely, that interests and values are su¢ciently harmonious so that each individual needs to obey only oneself while living under laws chosen by all. When faced with the reality of political parties, theorists of democracy recognized that some int...

Influenza: a virus of our times

Viruses are successful and omnipresent. Influenza A is a particularly important virus of humans. The article reviews the 2009 emergence of the pandemic influenza A virus, focusing on the potential origin of the virus and the distinctive clinical and epidemiological impact of the 2009 pandemic.

Understanding the heroes of our times